Will your program pass the new earnings test? (2026)
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About two minutes. Pell, state grant and loan limits for 2026-27 show before any email.
Start the aid checkA new federal earnings test checks whether a program’s graduates out-earn people who never enrolled. An undergraduate program passes if its graduates’ median pay four years after finishing matches or beats working adults aged 25 to 34 with only a high school diploma. Source · Duane Morris, July 9, 2026
A program that fails in two of three years loses access to federal Direct Loans. The first loss can come no earlier than the award year that starts in July 2028. Most programs will pass, and you can check yours now.
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Graduates must out-earn high school graduates
The test compares two medians. One is what the program’s graduates earn in the fourth tax year after they finish, from IRS data. The other is a threshold built from Census Bureau data. Source · Duane Morris
| Program level | Graduates must earn at least | Whose earnings set the bar |
|---|---|---|
| Undergraduate certificates and degrees | The median for working adults 25 to 34 with only a high school diploma | The school's state, or the nation if fewer than half its students are in-state |
| Graduate programs | The median for working adults 25 to 34 with only a bachelor's degree | The lowest of the state, state same-field and national same-field figures |
Small programs are pooled. If fewer than 30 graduates finish in a year, the Department adds earlier years and then related programs until the group reaches 30. Source · Duane Morris The Department publishes the thresholds each year, and it will post every program’s result.
Most bachelor’s programs clear the bar
The Department’s analysis of the proposed rule found that failing programs cluster in certificates and at for-profit schools. About 31% of undergraduate certificate students attended a program projected to fail, and about 55% of students in failing programs attended a for-profit school. Source · ED, AHEAD earnings test results
The same analysis put the share at 4% for associate degree students and under 1% for bachelor’s students. Source · TICAS Fields with the highest fail rates included culinary services, cosmetology, drama and fine arts, religious studies, and alternative medicine.
| Credential | Share of students in failing programs |
|---|---|
| Undergraduate certificate | About 31% |
| Associate degree | About 4% |
| Bachelor's degree | Under 1% |
What happens if a program fails
One failing year brings a warning, not a loss. The school must warn current students within 30 days, and new students must acknowledge the warning before they enroll or get federal aid. Source · Duane Morris
Passes
Graduates out-earn the bar
- Federal loans
- Available
- Pell Grant
- Available
- What the school must do
- Nothing new
Fails once
First failing year
- Federal loans
- Still available
- Pell Grant
- Still available
- What the school must do
- Warn current and new students
Fails 2 of 3 years
Low-earning outcome program
- Federal loans
- Ends for the program
- Pell Grant
- Usually still available
- What the school must do
- Stop Direct Loans; it may appeal a calculation error within 30 days
Pell can end too in one case. If more than half of a school’s federal aid students, or more than half of its federal aid dollars, are in low-earning programs, those programs can lose all federal aid, Pell included. Source · ED fact sheet
The dates to watch
-
Schools send their first program data
Schools report enrollment and cost data each year by October 1. Source · ED fact sheet
-
First calculation
The Department runs the first test with 2025 earnings, applying to the 2027-28 award year.
-
Rule takes full effect
First official results follow, and a single failure triggers student warnings. Source · Duane Morris
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Earliest loss of federal loans
Programs that fail in both 2027 and 2028 can lose Direct Loans for the 2028-29 award year.
Programs tied to jobs where most workers earn tips, such as cosmetology and massage therapy, get at least a one-year delay in consequences. Source · TICAS
How to check a program before the results
The official results don’t exist yet. The closest public figure is the College Scorecard’s median earnings for a program’s graduates four years after finishing, which also covers federal aid recipients who are working.
Here’s how that looks for some online-heavy bachelor’s programs in fields with lower pay.
| School | Program | Scorecard field | Median earnings, 4 yrs after | Median federal debt | Graduates, 2022-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern New Hampshire University | Liberal arts | Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities (bachelor's) | $66,656 | $13,023 | 1,312 |
| ASU Digital Immersion | Criminal justice | Criminal Justice and Corrections (bachelor's) | $59,973 | $20,151 | 238 |
| ASU Digital Immersion | English | English Language and Literature, General (bachelor's) | $50,205 | $21,375 | 232 |
| University of Maryland Global Campus | General studies | Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities (bachelor's) | $48,298 | $12,833 | 48 |
Source: U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard, field-of-study data updated June 10, 2026. Earnings and debt cover every graduate of that field and credential at the school, online and on campus together, so they describe the school's graduates, not what any one student will earn. Earnings are the median for graduates working and not enrolled four years after finishing (2017-18 and 2018-19 graduates, in 2024 dollars); debt is the median federal loan debt of graduates (2018-19 and 2019-20); "Not published" means Scorecard suppresses the figure for a small cohort. Scorecard pages: Southern New Hampshire University, ASU Digital Immersion, University of Maryland Global Campus.
Is your program at risk under the earnings test?
Is it an undergraduate certificate?
Frequently asked questions
Does the test apply to online programs?
Yes. It covers programs in every sector and credential level, online or on campus. Source · ED fact sheet
Can I still get Pell at a program that fails?
Usually yes. Pell ends only if the school also fails the half-of-students or half-of-dollars test described above.
Where will the results be posted?
The Department will publish whether each program passes or fails, with graduates’ earnings. Schools that get a warning must point students to that site.
Your next step is the payback math
The earnings test sets a floor, not a goal. The ROI calculator shows how long a program takes to pay back for you, using BLS pay for the job you want.
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Sources
Every figure in this guide comes from one of these pages. How we check sources
- U.S. Department of Education, fact sheet on the earnings accountability final rule, June 29, 2026
- Duane Morris, Department of Education finalizes earnings accountability framework, July 9, 2026
- U.S. Department of Education, AHEAD results of the earnings test (estimates on the proposed rule)
- TICAS, on the final earnings rule
- U.S. Department of Education: College Scorecard field-of-study data (June 10, 2026 release)
Related Resources
How to check what a school's graduates earn (2026)
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Online College Completion Rates 2026: 10 Schools Compared
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Is an Online Degree Worth It? 2026 Payback Math by Field
An online degree pays off when the job it leads to pays well above what you earn now. BLS 2025 wages by field, Scorecard costs and the payback formula.